Does Falling Smoking Lead to Rising Obesity?

Authors

Jonathan Gruber
Michael D. Frakes, Duke Law SchoolFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2006

Abstract

The strong negative correlation over time between smoking rates and obesity have led some to suggest that reduced smoking is increasing weight gain in the U.S.. This conclusion is supported by the findings of Chou et al. (2004), who conclude that higher cigarette prices lead to increased body weight. We investigate this issue and find no evidence that reduced smoking leads to weight gain. Using the cigarette tax rather than the cigarette price and controlling for non-linear time effects, we find a negative effect of cigarette taxes on body weight, implying that reduced smoking leads to lower body weights. Yet our results, as well as Chou et al., imply implausibly large effects of smoking on body weight. Thus, we cannot confirm that falling smoking leads in a major way to rising obesity rates in the U.S.

Comments

Author pre-print draft.

Citation

Jonathan Gruber & Michael D. Frakes, Does Falling Smoking Lead to Rising Obesity?, 25 Journal of Health Economics 183-197 (2006)